Derek Carty - Fantasy Baseball Writer and Analyst
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My Most Notable Work


Sabermetric Essays

What Sabermetrics Means to Me
BP — September 22, 2011

Studies

When Hitters' Stats Stabilize
BP — June 13, 2011

When Pitchers' Stats Stabilize
BP — June 20, 2011

Verducci Effect: Fact or Fake?
BP — February 2, 2012

Do Hitters Decline After the Home Run Derby?
THTF — July 13, 2009

Another Look at the Home Run Derby Hangover Effect
THTF — July 12, 2010

Does Hitter Quality Matter Against the Knuckleball?
BP — July 2, 2012

A Manager's Impact on Steals
BP — December 10, 2012

How Much Do Counts Affect BABIP?
THTF — July 30, 2010

The Statistical Impact of Switching Leagues (For Hitters)
THTF — December 01, 2008

The Statistical Impact of Switching Leagues (For Pitchers)
THTF — December 10, 2008

Do Overworked Relievers Decline in the Second-Half?
BP — July 21, 2011

Can Pitchers Control Their Consistency?
BP — October 10, 2011

Can Pitchers Control Their Pop-Ups Beyond Their Flyball Rate?
BP — September 8, 2011

How Important Are Batter/Pitcher Matchups?
FD — June 20, 2011

The Kemp Speed Theory: Do bigger players slow down earlier?
THTF — October 21, 2009

On Types, Location, and Effectiveness of Curveballs
THT — August 18, 2008

Does it Pay to Play the Match-ups with your SPs?
THTF — June 08, 2010

Predicting Reliever Wins
THTF — March 28, 2011

Stats

I've developed close to two dozen stats, which you can read all about here.


Fantasy Baseball Theory

Using FIP to evaluate pitchers? I wouldn’t
THTF — June 15, 2009

For those who still don’t believe FIP is bad for fantasy analysis…
THTF BOTR — July 16, 2009

The continued misuse of FIP
THTF — June 11, 2010

The Age-27 Breakout Fallacy
BP — February 6, 2012

On so-called "false precision" (originally titled "Why we should always draft Pujols first")
THTF — May 04, 2010

Do we use luck and randomness as a crutch?
THTF — July 30, 2010

More on regression, xFIP, HR/FB, BABIP, and the like
CR — August 18, 2010

Reaffirming our faith in DIPS
THTF — August 24, 2010

The ‘optimistic’ Bill James projections
THTF — December 22, 2009

The probabilistic concept of value
THTF — January 09, 2008

Fantasy Baseball Strategy

How Often Do Closers Keep Their Jobs?
Do Only Good Closers Keep Their Jobs?
Does Experience Matter for Closers?
How Well Can We Predict Saves?
CR — 2009

Using Leverage Index to identify closer candidates
THTF — February 6, 2008

Draft strategy: Injury risks can lead to big rewards (Part 1)
Draft strategy: Injury risks can lead to big rewards (Part 2)
Draft strategy: Injury risks can lead to big rewards (Part 3)
Draft strategy: Injury risks can lead to big rewards (Part 4)
THTF — February 2009

Draft strategy: Taking high risk players late
THTF — March 5, 2008

Keeper league strategy: Closers
THTF — August 13, 2007

Keeper league strategy: Injuries
THTF — August 13, 2007

When to use the waiver wire
THTF — April 09, 2009

When to use your FAAB budget and waiver priority
THTF — April 15, 2009

Daily Fantasy Baseball

How to Evaluate Batter Matchups
How to Evaluate Pitcher Matchups
DFSEdge — 2013

How predictive are hitter hot streaks?
How predictive are hitter cold streaks?
How predictive are pitcher hot streaks?
How predictive are pitcher cold streaks?
FanDuel — 2011

How important are batter/pitcher matchups? (Part 1)
How important are batter/pitcher matchups? (Part 2)
FanDuel — 2011

The Benefits of Facing a Poor Pitcher
The Benefits of Facing a Poor Offense
FanDuel — 2011

The Effect of Umpires on Daily Fantasy Baseball
FanDuel — 2011

Park Factors and Daily Fantasy
FanDuel — 2011

The Benefits of Facing a Poor Defense
How a Pitcher’s Defense Can Affect His Value
FanDuel — 2011

How Important Is Home Field Advantage?
DFSEdge — 2013

Can Park Effects Overcome the Loss of Home Field Advantage?
DFSEdge — 2013

When Are Road Pitchers Actually Great Plays?
DFSEdge — 2013

Which Daily Site Salaries Are Driven Most By Current Season Stats?
DFSEdge — 2013

Closers, the Ultimate Boom-or-Bust Tournament Play
DFSEdge — 2013

Platoons and Why You Should Avoid Switch-Hitters
DFSEdge — 2013


Fantasy Baseball Roundtables

How seriously do experts take mock drafts?
THTF — January 14, 2009


For a more complete listing of my work, you can visit my author page for Baseball Prospectus, The Hardball Times, DFSEdge, or FanDuel.